Global Steel Prices Continue to Rise, Brazil Leads the Way
Global steel prices strengthened further in April and early May. Brazil emerged as the top-performing market, while China faced ongoing production challenges.
According to Goldman Sachs’ latest “Global Steel: The Steel Market Barometer – May Update” report, hot rolled coil (HRC) prices increased in almost every major region during April. Brazil recorded the biggest jump with a 10% month-on-month rise. Japan followed with a 6.5% increase, and China saw a 2.9% gain.
On a year-to-date basis, Brazil delivered the strongest performance with a 21% rise in HRC prices. The United States came second with a 15% increase. Other regions also posted healthy gains between 6% and 13%.
Long steel prices also moved upward. Brazil once again led the surge as rebar prices climbed 12% month-on-month. Europe registered a 6.9% increase, while the Black Sea region rose 6.1%.
On the supply side, China’s steel output continued to decline. In the first two weeks of May, production fell 3.2% compared to the same period last year. Goldman Sachs noted that although China’s long-term capacity reduction plan remains active, its implementation has been delayed into 2026.
Meanwhile, other major steel-producing countries showed mixed trends. Europe’s crude steel production grew 16% month-on-month in March, yet it stayed lower on a yearly basis. In the United States, weekly steel output rose 3% in April, and capacity utilisation improved to 79.6%.
India continued to shine as one of the fastest-growing steel markets. The country’s crude steel production accelerated to 11% year-on-year growth in March. This marked an improvement from 10% year-to-date and 7% in February.
Goldman Sachs observed that infrastructure investment in China remained robust despite weakness in the property sector. Infrastructure spending (excluding water and power) rose 8.9% year-on-year in the first three months of 2026.
Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs expects steel prices to stay relatively stable across key global markets for the rest of 2026. The report predicts that US steel prices will remain stronger than those in Europe, China, and Brazil.
Overall, the steel market shows clear regional differences, with Brazil and India maintaining strong momentum while China continues to face supply-side pressures.